- In January, I predicted that Argo looked like it was going to be the likely winner. Why? Well first, Argo is consistent with the trend of last year’s ceremony theme of the power of movies. Also, you may have noticed this, but Hollywood reeeeeally likes to pat itself on the back during awards season. While Argo mocks the Hollywood process, it also is about Hollywood in some way, which should impress those in Hollywood. Second, in a crowded field, Argo is, in the eyes of many people, the most entertaining film, the most feel good film, and the least “controversial” movie. While Argo has had some controversies come out late in the running (historical inaccuracy and racebending) it’s still the most “likeable” (see The King’s Speech and The Artist) film in the field. Lincoln? Too talky and boring. Zero Dark Thirty? Too historical inaccurate and torture promoting. Les Les Misérables ? Too sentimental and poorly directed. Life of Pi? Too imbalanced. Silver Linings Playbook? Not special enough, and so forth (Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild are the, “lucky to be nominated” movies). Factor in its recent dominance on the guild awards circuit, and it seems inevitable that Ben Affleck will end the night holding the biggest prize of the show. I suppose Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook are the most likely films to pull off the upset (also, don’t underestimate Life of Pi), but Argo’s momentum just does not seem like it’s going to slow down anytime soon.
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
- Crap, why did I pick Spielberg? Today, I’m convinced that Ang Lee will get the win. But maybe not. Anyways, Spielberg is the safe pick, so I’m going with that. But I fully expect to be wrong on this one. (On a side note, I’m a little annoyed that Kathryn Bigelow didn’t receive the same swell of support that Affleck did in terms of getting snubbed. I mean, come one.)
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
- Can Phoenix pull off the upset? Possibly. Will he? Probably not.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
- For much of the awards season, it seemed like this was a two person race between Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastin. It seems after her Golden Globe win, Chastin’s buzz completely died off. One BAFTA victory later, though, and Riva has stormed back into contention. My theory is that Lawrence and Chastin cancel each other out, allowing the Academy to give Riva a very nice birthday gift. Also, I think it’s possible that voters will think that since Lawrence will eventually get her Oscar sometime in the future, there’s no need to vote for her this year.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables
- Come on, this race was over before it ever started. I guess Sally Field could pull off the upset, but those chances are slimmer than slim.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Christoph Waltz - Django Unchianed
- Veeeery tough to call this one, as this one’s anyone’s game. Jones is the safe pick (won the SAG after all), and I kind of expect him to win. But Waltz won the BAFTA, and seems like he’s really popular among his Hollywood peers. Plus, I feel that the voters will want to reward Django in some fashion, and this is a way to do that.
Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal - Zero Dark Thirty
- Very competitive category here. I think (just like in 2009) that it will come down to Boal vs. Tarantino. And, just like in 2009, I think Boal will triumph again. My theory is that while Tarantino will have his support, a lot of voters won’t want to reward Tarantino for, “doing the same thing again.” ZD30 probably won’t win best picture, and it obviously won’t win for best director, so this could be where the voters will reward it.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Chris Terrio - Argo
- Lincoln could still win this, but Argo has been winning pretty much all the adapted screenplay guild awards. Did Argo win the WGA? Yes? Well then it probably wins this.