- In January, I predicted that Argo looked like it was going to be the likely winner. Why? Well first, Argo is consistent with the trend of last year’s ceremony theme of the power of movies. Also, you may have noticed this, but Hollywood reeeeeally likes to pat itself on the back during awards season. While Argo mocks the Hollywood process, it also is about Hollywood in some way, which should impress those in Hollywood. Second, in a crowded field, Argo is, in the eyes of many people, the most entertaining film, the most feel good film, and the least “controversial” movie. While Argo has had some controversies come out late in the running (historical inaccuracy and racebending) it’s still the most “likeable” (see The King’s Speech and The Artist) film in the field. Lincoln? Too talky and boring. Zero Dark Thirty? Too historical inaccurate and torture promoting. Les Les Misérables ? Too sentimental and poorly directed. Life of Pi? Too imbalanced. Silver Linings Playbook? Not special enough, and so forth (Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild are the, “lucky to be nominated” movies). Factor in its recent dominance on the guild awards circuit, and it seems inevitable that Ben Affleck will end the night holding the biggest prize of the show. I suppose Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook are the most likely films to pull off the upset (also, don’t underestimate Life of Pi), but Argo’s momentum just does not seem like it’s going to slow down anytime soon.